Question

What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction1.81 (0.487 - 18.3)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.4872

1.81

18.34

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

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Scheduled resolution:

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

Biotechnology

Cryopreservation

Medicine

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Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

51%

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

8.53

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

Biotechnology

Cryopreservation

Medicine

America Needs to Radically Rethink What It Means to Be Old

Atlantic•Dec 11, 2024

Could hibernation technology allow humans to skip winters?

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

People Predict What Will Happen In 2025

Buzzfeed•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

51%

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

8.53

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What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

Make a Prediction

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

Comments

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?

Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?