Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

13
9
Total Forecasters51
Community Prediction71.9k (45k - 133k)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>10M
...
...
...
...
45.01k
71.86k
132.9k
0.3%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Natural Sciences
2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami
Haiti
US Geological Survey

Comments

? comments