Question

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction69.7k (43.4k - 127k)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>10M
community	43.44k	69.71k	127k	0.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	43.44k	—
median	69.71k	—
upper 75%	127k	—
Upper bound
>10M	0.2%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 16, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

America rattled by multiple earthquakes in quick succession

Daily Mail•Feb 27, 2025

Japan Fights Its Largest Wildfire in More Than 30 Years

New York Times•Mar 2, 2025

Japan wildfire mapped: One dead and thousands evacuated as country battles largest fire in decades

Independent•Mar 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.57k

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