Question

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction74.2k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

44.84k

74.18k

135.5k

0.3%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

Thousands left without power as deadly bomb cyclone strikes Pacific Northwest

USA Today•Nov 20, 2024

'Bomb cyclone' storm leaves 1 confirmed dead and more than 500,000 without power on the West Coast

NBC•Nov 20, 2024

Haiti

•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.81k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

Thousands left without power as deadly bomb cyclone strikes Pacific Northwest

USA Today•Nov 20, 2024

'Bomb cyclone' storm leaves 1 confirmed dead and more than 500,000 without power on the West Coast

NBC•Nov 20, 2024

Haiti

•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.81k