Question
As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
Resolved :Jun 2, 20302035-05-31Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction2035-05-31 (2031-05-16 - 2040-10-31)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <2023-07-21 | 3.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 2031 | — |
| median | 2035 | — |
| upper 75% | 2040 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2110-01-04 | 1.1% | — |
What was the final result?Jun 2, 2030
Community Baseline Score
26.2
Community Peer Score
16.5
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolves:Jul 1, 2022
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolves:Jul 1, 2022
