Question

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

Resolved :Jun 2, 20302035-05-31

12 comments12

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction2035-05-31 (2031-05-16 - 2040-10-31)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<2023-07-21

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2110-01-04

...

3.4%

2031-05-16 02:51

2035-05-31 22:36

2040-10-31 10:17

1.1%

What was the final result?Jun 2, 2030

Community Baseline Score

26.2

Community Beer Score

16.5

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Artificial general intelligence

Microsoft’s AI boss and Sam Altman disagree on what it takes to get to AGI

Verge•Dec 10, 2024

A test for AGI is closer to being solved — but it may be flawed

TechCrunch•Dec 10, 2024

Microsoft's Mustafa Suleyman says Sam Altman's AGI timeline is plausible — but not probable

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2032-12-14

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-08-20

In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?

2029-11-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Metaculus

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Artificial general intelligence

Microsoft’s AI boss and Sam Altman disagree on what it takes to get to AGI

Verge•Dec 10, 2024

A test for AGI is closer to being solved — but it may be flawed

TechCrunch•Dec 10, 2024

Microsoft's Mustafa Suleyman says Sam Altman's AGI timeline is plausible — but not probable

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2032-12-14

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-08-20

In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?

2029-11-27

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

Make a Prediction

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?

Comments

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?