Question

First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?

Resolved :No20%

13 comments13

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction20% (10% - 39%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

1.5

Community Peer Score

27.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

2016-2020 Leaderboard

SpaceX reusable launch system

Space Shuttle program

Boeing CST-100 Starliner

Falcon 9

SpaceX

From Starship tests to Starliner woes, recapping the biggest spaceflight missions of 2024

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Boeing Starliner crew's return to Earth from International Space Station delayed yet again

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

NASA pushes back return of stranded Starliner astronauts until late March

NBC•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the 1,000th person reach space?

2034-08-24

When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?

2025-07-19

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

41.6%

Comments

? comments