Question

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction2028-05-19 (2025-10-07 - 2038-12-17)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<2021-09-30

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2049-12-30

...

0.4%

2025-10-07 13:06

2028-05-19 11:17

2038-12-17 04:58

18.5%

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Situational Awareness

Regulation of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Manhattan Project

Apollo program

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Predictions for AI in 2025: Collaborative Agents, AI Skepticism, and New Risks

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.2k

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.2

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Situational Awareness

Regulation of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Manhattan Project

Apollo program

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Predictions for AI in 2025: Collaborative Agents, AI Skepticism, and New Risks

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.2k

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.2

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

Make a Prediction

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Comments

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?