📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?

23
42
Total Forecasters90
Community Prediction2019-06-28 (2018-10-15 - 2020-08-30)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
2018-10-15 15:48
2019-06-28 05:50
2020-08-30 11:34
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Arcade game
Google
Montezuma's Revenge (video game)
Machine learning
Atari 2600
Convolutional neural network
Jürgen Schmidhuber
Reinforcement learning
DeepMind

Comments

? comments