Question

Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?

Resolved :No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters123

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.8

Community Peer Score

3.9

median 1.0%mean 5.7%

Authors:

DonyChristie

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

74.3k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

DonyChristie

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

74.3k