Question

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters258

Community Prediction1% (1% - 6%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

The Collapse of Nuclear Arms-Control Treaties

Lew Rockwell•Dec 10, 2024

Nobel laureate warns Putin about danger of nuclear weapons

Raw Story•Dec 10, 2024

Putin's Closest Ally Says More Than Dozen Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

Newsweek•Dec 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

The Collapse of Nuclear Arms-Control Treaties

Lew Rockwell•Dec 10, 2024

Nobel laureate warns Putin about danger of nuclear weapons

Raw Story•Dec 10, 2024

Putin's Closest Ally Says More Than Dozen Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

Newsweek•Dec 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

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Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Comments

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?