Question

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters263

Community Prediction2% (1% - 6%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

China Says 'Forced' To Acquire Nuclear Weapons as US Sounds Warning

Newsweek•Jan 16, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Iran's Khamenei Halts Nuclear Weapons Program in Olive Branch to Trump

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

58%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

China Says 'Forced' To Acquire Nuclear Weapons as US Sounds Warning

Newsweek•Jan 16, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Iran's Khamenei Halts Nuclear Weapons Program in Olive Branch to Trump

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

58%