Question

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

78 comments78

Total Forecasters358

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 2.0%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

80%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

86%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

One of OpenAI's biggest new investors explains why it made its $500 million bet

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

Those bold AGI predictions are suddenly looking stretched

Business Insider•Nov 17, 2024

AI is hitting a wall just as valuations reach the stratosphere

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

80%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

86%