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Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

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Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

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Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

95%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

85%

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Cartesia claims its AI is efficient enough to run pretty much anywhere

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI had a 2-year lead in the AI race to work 'uncontested,' Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

95%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

85%

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Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

Comments

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?