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Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

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Anthony

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Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

72%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

86%

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

72%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

86%