678
1.9k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
05 Aug 2030
Top Key Factors
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Delays
Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After Allblog.aifutures.org•Nov 10, 2026
Hastens
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Hastens
AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing
Delays
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Hastens
The Act of forecasting changes the forecast itself
Increases Uncertainty
China starts a war with Taiwan
Hastens
Strong regulation of AI companies by US government
Hastens
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Delays
Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After Allblog.aifutures.org•Nov 10, 2026
Hastens
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
Hastens
AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing
Delays
The Act of forecasting changes the forecast itself
Increases Uncertainty
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Hastens
Strong regulation of AI companies by US government
Hastens
China starts a war with Taiwan
Hastens
Genuinely good US government policy on AI safety (something like SB 1047)
Delays
Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)
Delays
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Delays
AI CEOs realize theres no reason to race when all fellow racers are moral people who can cooperate to save the world
Hastens