Question
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1499
Community Prediction2030-04-04 (2026-10-10 - 2038-04-18)
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CDF
weight:
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2026 | — |
| median | 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | 2038 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199-12-25 | 1.7% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch