Question
If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?
Resolved :460k460kTotal Forecasters50
Community Prediction460k (352k - 574k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <10k | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 352.5k | — |
| median | 459.7k | — |
| upper 75% | 574k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10M | 0.3% | — |
What was the final result?460k
Community Baseline Score
15.8
Community Peer Score
27.0
Authors:
Opened:Sep 1, 2020
Closes:Feb 4, 2021
Resolves:Mar 4, 2022
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Sep 1, 2020
Closes:Feb 4, 2021
Resolves:Mar 4, 2022
