Question

If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved :460k

25 comments25

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction460k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<10k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

0.2%

352.5k

459.7k

574k

0.3%

What was the final result?460k

Community Baseline Score

15.8

Community Peer Score

27.0

Authors:

amanda@ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

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