MetaculusM

Question

Question

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

25

Total Forecasters110

Community Prediction2049-02-25

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-24

...

...

...

...

2033-11-01 07:52

2049-02-25 21:52

2084-11-05 01:10

13.9%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

Agricultural revolution

Real gross domestic product

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

A Roadmap to AI Utopia

Time•Nov 12, 2024

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

Agricultural revolution

Real gross domestic product

OpenAI is reportedly struggling to improve its next big AI model. It's a warning for the entire AI industry.

Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

A Roadmap to AI Utopia

Time•Nov 12, 2024

Verge•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?