Question

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters110

Community Prediction2048-11-25 (2033-08-04 - 2085-01-19)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-24

...

2033-08-04 00:10

2048-11-25 19:51

2085-01-19 13:22

14.2%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Real gross domestic product

A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

2041-05-20

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

2082-08-16

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Real gross domestic product

A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

2041-05-20

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

2082-08-16

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

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In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Make a Prediction

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Comments

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?