Question

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

106

200 comments200

Total Forecasters957

Community Prediction33.5% (20% - 56%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33.5%

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

Republic of China Navy

Penghu

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Hopes for 'reunification' a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

Republic of China Navy

Penghu

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Hopes for 'reunification' a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

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Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?