Question

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

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200 comments200

Total Forecasters957

Community Prediction33.5% (20% - 56%)

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community: 33.5%

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Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

Republic of China Navy

Penghu

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

Republic of China Navy

Penghu

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

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Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?