Question

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

106

200 comments200

Total Forecasters972

Community Prediction40% (22% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Oct 9, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Taiwan president says ‘impossible’ for mainland China to be the motherland

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

The maps that show how China’s military is squeezing Taiwan

Guardian•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.5%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Oct 9, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Q&A: 'Vast, Deep Impact' if China Invades Taiwan, Says Author Kerry Brown

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Taiwan president says ‘impossible’ for mainland China to be the motherland

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

The maps that show how China’s military is squeezing Taiwan

Guardian•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.5%