Question

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

106

200 comments200

Total Forecasters957

Community Prediction34% (21% - 56%)

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50%

community: 34%

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Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan’s presidential office runs first ‘tabletop’ simulation of Chinese military escalation

CNN•Dec 27, 2024

Taiwan is preparing more than just the military for a China invasion

Business Insider•Dec 27, 2024

China has launched new drills encircling Taiwan. Why now?

CNN•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan’s presidential office runs first ‘tabletop’ simulation of Chinese military escalation

CNN•Dec 27, 2024

Taiwan is preparing more than just the military for a China invasion

Business Insider•Dec 27, 2024

China has launched new drills encircling Taiwan. Why now?

CNN•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Comments

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?