Question

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

107

200 comments200

Total Forecasters973

Community Prediction41% (25% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 41%

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Oct 9, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Inside the Trump Administration's Taiwan Debate | Opinion

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Is China’s military really built for war? New report questions Beijing’s arms buildup

CNN•Feb 17, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

michaelchen

Opened:

Oct 9, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Li Zuocheng

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Inside the Trump Administration's Taiwan Debate | Opinion

Newsweek•Feb 12, 2025

Is China’s military really built for war? New report questions Beijing’s arms buildup

CNN•Feb 17, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%