Question

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction

33%

(5% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33%

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Oct 14, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 16, 2020

Economy & Business

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

Gross world product

Paul Christiano

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

57%

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

61%

When will we have transformative AI?

2040

Comments

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