Question

Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?

Resolved :No62%

93 comments93

Total Forecasters142

Community Prediction62% (49% - 78%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-38.0

Community Peer Score

11.9

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Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Another Islamic terror attack on a European Christmas market

American Thinker•Dec 21, 2024

German Christmas market ramming is the latest attack to use vehicles as deadly weapons

Associated Press•Dec 21, 2024

A horrific Christmas attack in Germany is weirder than expected

Economist•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

92%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Another Islamic terror attack on a European Christmas market

American Thinker•Dec 21, 2024

German Christmas market ramming is the latest attack to use vehicles as deadly weapons

Associated Press•Dec 21, 2024

A horrific Christmas attack in Germany is weirder than expected

Economist•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

92%

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?

Make a Prediction

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Comments

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?