📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?

16
15
Total Forecasters59
Community Prediction2025-10-04 (2024-09-28 - 2027-01-07)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2034-12-30
...
...
...
...
2024-09-28 10:17
2025-10-04 10:20
2027-01-07 11:03
0.6%
Authors:
isinlor
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Demonstrations
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Video game development
Philosophy
Artificial general intelligence
Atari 2600
Montezuma's Revenge (video game)
Arcade game

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