Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

MetaculusM

Question

Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?

Resolved :Yes9%

16

Total Forecasters96

Community Prediction9% (5% - 18%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-208.6

Community Peer Score

-17.4

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2020 Leaderboard

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2020 Leaderboard