Question

When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?

Resolved :Nov 22, 20212022-01-10

124 comments124

Total Forecasters245

Community Prediction2022-01-10 (2021-11-15 - 2022-05-31)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2022-12-21

...

2021-11-15 13:59

2022-01-10 04:53

2022-05-31 09:42

14.8%

What was the final result?Nov 22, 2021

Community Baseline Score

33.5

Community Peer Score

23.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Food and Drug Administration

Politicization and COVID-19 vaccine resistance in the U.S.

•Dec 15, 2024

Increasing Public Criticism, Confusion Over COVID-19 Response in U.S.

•Dec 15, 2024

Why is vaccine hesitancy among Republicans more common?

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Food and Drug Administration

Politicization and COVID-19 vaccine resistance in the U.S.

•Dec 15, 2024

Increasing Public Criticism, Confusion Over COVID-19 Response in U.S.

•Dec 15, 2024

Why is vaccine hesitancy among Republicans more common?

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025?

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?

Make a Prediction

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025?

Comments

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025?