Question

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

344 comments344

Total Forecasters1389

Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Nov 12, 2017

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Health & Pandemics

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 have reached new high

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

NASA’s odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid hitting Earth just went up — the highest probability ever

New York Post•Feb 18, 2025

NASA says chances of 'city-killing' asteroid smashing into Earth have increased AGAIN

Daily Mail•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2046-03-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Nov 12, 2017

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Health & Pandemics

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 have reached new high

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

NASA’s odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid hitting Earth just went up — the highest probability ever

New York Post•Feb 18, 2025

NASA says chances of 'city-killing' asteroid smashing into Earth have increased AGAIN

Daily Mail•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2046-03-01