Question

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

331 comments331

Total Forecasters1245

Community Prediction1% (0.2% - 10%)

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50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

When Neanderthals interbred with ancient humans: Research clarifies timeline of human evolution

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

When Did Neandertals and Humans Interbreed? Genomics Closes In on a Date

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2048-08-08

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

When Neanderthals interbred with ancient humans: Research clarifies timeline of human evolution

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

When Did Neandertals and Humans Interbreed? Genomics Closes In on a Date

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2048-08-08

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Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Make a Prediction

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Comments

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?