Question

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

331 comments331

Total Forecasters1237

Community Prediction1.4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.4%

median 1.4%mean 15.7%

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2049-04-26

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Technology

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Extinction

Nearly half of tropical coral species face extinction: report

Raw Story•Nov 13, 2024

Chances of aliens existing in our universe finally revealed by new 'formula for life' calculator

Daily Mail•Nov 14, 2024

New US Government Report: Climate Change 'Not an Existential Threat' to Humanity

Red State•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2049-04-26