Question

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction45% (40% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 45%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Dec 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

Arms Control in the Middle East

OpEdNews•Jan 20, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Russia's Weapons May Have Surpassed Nuclear Arms Treaty, US Congress Warned

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

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Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

0.357

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

60%

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