Question

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction45%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 45%

median 45.0%mean 46.0%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

0.357

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Singapore

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Netherlands

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations General Assembly

NATO

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

0.357

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%