📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?

Resolved :820k802k
22
48
Total Forecasters173
Community Prediction802k (770k - 838k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.3M
...
...
...
...
770.3k
802k
838k
0.6%

What was the final result?820k

Community Baseline Score
17.9
Community Peer Score
47.0
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economist 2021
Health & Pandemics
2020-2021 Leaderboard
Public health
United States
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

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