Question

Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?

Resolved :Yes80%

39 comments39

Total Forecasters127

Community Prediction80% (72% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

75.0

Community Peer Score

8.9

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Authors:

thatMikeBishop

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Antibodies Could Soon Help Slow the Aging Process

Wired•Dec 17, 2024

Vaccine misinformation distorts science – a biochemist explains how RFK Jr. and his lawyer’s claims threaten public health

The Conversation•Dec 17, 2024

COVID-19 Rates Are Strangely Low This Holiday Season

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.2

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

thatMikeBishop

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Antibodies Could Soon Help Slow the Aging Process

Wired•Dec 17, 2024

Vaccine misinformation distorts science – a biochemist explains how RFK Jr. and his lawyer’s claims threaten public health

The Conversation•Dec 17, 2024

COVID-19 Rates Are Strangely Low This Holiday Season

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.2

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?

Make a Prediction

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Comments

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Update: the variants vs. the vaccines

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?