Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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M

Question

What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it on January 1, 2025?

8
2
Total Forecasters22
Community Prediction0.794 (0.528 - 0.978)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
0.5283
0.7941
0.9781
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
alexrjl
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Sports & Entertainment
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Marcus Daniell

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