Question

How much global warming by 2100?

120 comments120

Total Forecasters546

Community Prediction2.95

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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2.151

2.946

3.981

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

95%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2045-04-22

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

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Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

The world has ALREADY exceeded the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, study warns - and scientists say time is running out to curb climate change

Daily Mail•Nov 12, 2024

Humanity has warmed the planet by 1.5°C since 1700

New Scientist•Nov 12, 2024

‘Minimal progress’ made this year on curbing global heating, report finds

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

95%

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2045-04-22

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%