Question

Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?

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Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

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Computing and Math

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Google

Quantum computing

RSA (cryptosystem)

Public-key cryptography

Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm

Diffie–Hellman key exchange

Cryptography

Physics

Quantum mechanics

Google has unveiled a new quantum computer chip that cracks a '30-year challenge in the field'

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Google says it has made a chip that can be more than a billion times faster than the fastest supercomputers

Independent•Dec 11, 2024

Google says its breakthrough quantum chip can’t break modern cryptography

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2039-04-25

Comments

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Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Google

Quantum computing

RSA (cryptosystem)

Public-key cryptography

Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm

Diffie–Hellman key exchange

Cryptography

Physics

Quantum mechanics

Google has unveiled a new quantum computer chip that cracks a '30-year challenge in the field'

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Google says it has made a chip that can be more than a billion times faster than the fastest supercomputers

Independent•Dec 11, 2024

Google says its breakthrough quantum chip can’t break modern cryptography

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2039-04-25

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Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?

Make a Prediction

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Comments

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?