Question
When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?
Resolved:Above upper boundTotal Forecasters149
Community Prediction
07 May 2022
(11 Mar 2022 - 30 Jul 2022)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 11 Mar 2022 | — |
| median | 07 May 2022 | — |
| upper 75% | 30 Jul 2022 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >173568960000% | 0.3% | — |
What was the final result?Above upper bound
Community Baseline Score
-125.7
Community Peer Score
45.5
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2022
Resolves:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2022
Resolves:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch