Question

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

61 comments61

Total Forecasters327

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

median 20.0%mean 21.8%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Civil engineering

United Nations Security Council

Risk management

International Nuclear Event Scale

Chernobyl disaster

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?

7.27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Civil engineering

United Nations Security Council

Risk management

International Nuclear Event Scale

Chernobyl disaster

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Japanese regulators disqualify a reactor under post-Fukushima safety standards for the first time

Associated Press•Nov 13, 2024

Japanese Nuclear Reactor Disqualified Under Post-Fukushima Safety Standards

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Can the US triple its nuclear energy capacity?

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?

7.27