Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?

Resolved :No4%
50
23
Total Forecasters295
Community Prediction4% (1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
94.0
Community Peer Score
9.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
jzima
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Space
Technology
2016-2020 Leaderboard
SpaceX reusable launch system
Dragon 2
Colonization of Mars
SpaceX

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