Question

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

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Community Prediction50% (45% - 60%)

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community: 50%

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Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

116th United States Congress

Did Trump election signal start of new political era? — Harvard Gazette

•Dec 15, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

The Electoral College votes to confirm results for the 2024 presidential election today. Here's what to know.

CBS•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Democratic Party (US)

116th United States Congress

Did Trump election signal start of new political era? — Harvard Gazette

•Dec 15, 2024

Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions

•Dec 17, 2024

The Electoral College votes to confirm results for the 2024 presidential election today. Here's what to know.

CBS•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?

Make a Prediction

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Comments

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? → Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?