Question

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

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Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction15% (8% - 20%)

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50%

community: 15%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human settlement of Mars isn’t as far off as you might think

Raw Story•Dec 18, 2024

Ultraluxury hotel brands are turning to cruise ships and private jets

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Sustainable Ocean Alliance marks 10 years with ocean-friendly startup label and a new batch of ‘ecopreneurs’

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 100,000 or more inhabitants before 2050?

60%

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?

50%

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human settlement of Mars isn’t as far off as you might think

Raw Story•Dec 18, 2024

Ultraluxury hotel brands are turning to cruise ships and private jets

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Sustainable Ocean Alliance marks 10 years with ocean-friendly startup label and a new batch of ‘ecopreneurs’

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 100,000 or more inhabitants before 2050?

60%

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?

50%