📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?

Resolved :59.2M58.4M
4
11
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction58.4M (55.1M - 61.6M)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>70M
...
...
...
...
55.1M
58.41M
61.62M
2.5%

What was the final result?59.2M

Community Baseline Score
49.3
Community Peer Score
12.3
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2021 Leaderboard
Food and Drug Administration
Moderna
COVID-19 vaccine
United States
Medicine
Immunology
Virology
Johnson & Johnson
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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