Question

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters121

Community Prediction15% (8% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

kokotajlod

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Domestic terrorism in the United States

United States biological weapons program

Cyber-kinetic attack

White supremacy

Antigovernment

Cyber-security regulation

REVEALED: How many Americans think the world is edging toward WWIII

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Death Toll in Israel-Hamas War Surpasses 45,000

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

The Return of War to the Home Front

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

kokotajlod

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Domestic terrorism in the United States

United States biological weapons program

Cyber-kinetic attack

White supremacy

Antigovernment

Cyber-security regulation

REVEALED: How many Americans think the world is edging toward WWIII

Daily Mail•Dec 16, 2024

Death Toll in Israel-Hamas War Surpasses 45,000

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

The Return of War to the Home Front

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Comments

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?