Question

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters122

Community Prediction15% (7.2% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

kokotajlod

Opened:

Apr 7, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Geopolitics

Domestic terrorism in the United States

United States biological weapons program

Cyber-security regulation

Cyber-kinetic attack

Antigovernment

White supremacy

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Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

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Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

A new Civil War?

American Thinker•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%

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