M

Question

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Total Forecasters166
Community Prediction2030-08-11 (2026-03-26 - 2040-02-24)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2299-12-28
...
...
...
...
2026-03-26 19:02
2030-08-11 08:26
2040-02-24 21:02
2.7%
Opened:Apr 24, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2299
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300

Comments

? comments