Question

Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?

Resolved :No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction66%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-37.3

Community Peer Score

6.0

median 66.0%mean 68.8%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Keep Virginia Safe: Round 1

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

1.4%

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

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