Question

On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?

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Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction2024-12-28

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2024-12-31

...

2023-11-24 21:52

2024-12-28 16:41

>2024-12-31 00:00

49.5%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

1.4%

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Comments

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Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

COVID Map Update Reveals Shift in 'Very High' Water Virus Levels

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

United States’ first known case of more severe strain of mpox confirmed in California

CNN•Nov 17, 2024

U.S. confirms first case of more aggressive strain of mpox

NBC•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

1.4%

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01