Question

Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous

143 comments143

Total Forecasters205

Community Prediction37%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 37.0%mean 35.9%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%