📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

17
19
Total Forecasters61
Community Prediction1.22k (241 - 5.19k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>10k
...
...
...
...
240.6
1.223k
5.194k
16.6%
Authors:
uganda
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Technology
Robotics
Ethics
Risk management
Manhattan Project
Existential risk from AGI
AGI
Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

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