Question

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters60

Community Prediction1.2k (220 - 5.02k)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

...

219.7

1.198k

5.019k

16.0%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

Manhattan Project

AGI

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

What Are AI Agents, and Why Are They About to Be Everywhere?

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

35%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

46.6

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.3

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

Manhattan Project

AGI

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

What Are AI Agents, and Why Are They About to Be Everywhere?

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

35%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

46.6

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

20.3

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

Make a Prediction

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

Comments

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?