Question
50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
Total Forecasters63
Community Prediction
1.13k hours
(219 - 4.91k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 218.8 | — |
| median | 1.126k | — |
| upper 75% | 4.905k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10k | 15.9% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 9, 2021
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 9, 2021