Question

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters60

Community Prediction1.21k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10k

...

221

1.207k

5.321k

16.8%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

Manhattan Project

AGI

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

37.4%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Existential risk from AGI

Manhattan Project

AGI

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

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Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

37.4%

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7