Question

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

192

58 comments58

Total Forecasters791

Community Prediction60%

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50%

community: 60%

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median 60.0%mean 57.2%

Authors:

nostradamus

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.37

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

80%

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

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Authors:

nostradamus

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.37

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

80%

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04