Question

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters221

Community Prediction57% (43% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 57%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Mar 29, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Paul Christiano

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Business Insider•Feb 10, 2025

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

34.4%

Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?

61%

When will we have transformative AI?

2040-04-09

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