Question
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
Total Forecasters139
Community Prediction
2027
(2025 - 2029)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2025 | — |
| median | 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >351760320000% | 0.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jun 18, 2021
Closes:Jun 20, 2081
Scheduled resolution:Jun 20, 2081
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 20, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
91.6
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
2031
What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 18, 2021
Closes:Jun 20, 2081
Scheduled resolution:Jun 20, 2081
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 20, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
91.6
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
2031