Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction2032-06-10 (2027-04-28 - 2040-03-18)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2027-04-28 06:30

2032-06-10 07:54

2040-03-18 10:09

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

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Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

Putin challenges the West to a 'high-tech missile DUEL': President suggests giving advance notice of a hypersonic Oreshnik attack to see 'if they can stop it in time' during annual news conference

•Dec 19, 2024

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

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If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Comments

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?