Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters89

Community Prediction2032-06-14

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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2027-05-20 06:20

2032-06-14 11:37

2040-02-27 08:45

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Comments

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

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Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%